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The Palin Effect

The addition to Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket may be a good and clarifying thing for Obama Pollsters. It may soften the affect of the "Bradley Effect" on Obama's pre-November 4th numbers. Those who had planned to vote McCain but would've said undecided or "voting for Obama" to pollsters to not appear racist, can now say McCain because a woman is on the ticket and the fear of a sexist charge may offset the fear of a racist charge. That may be a little of what we are seeing now in the polling. Factoring in the "Bradley Effect", assuming it even showed up, the Obama camp would've had to been around 4 or 5 points up on election day.

Though if you look at the California primary my numbers could be way off. Obama was ahead by as much as 13 and lost by 10. To a woman! That could be called the "Obama Effect".

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Let the Media Do That

Dee Dee Myers in final analysis of Gibson's interview with Palin responding to Stephanopoulos' question "what should Obama do?" She said "he needs to not go after her, let the media do that." I kid you not. Yet again they admit it.
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Hillary Countdown

It's just a matter of time before Hillary says she can't support Obama and his misogynist ways. She already is reluctant to support his flailing candidacy. He just giving her reasons to bail. Remember "Sweetie"? And now "Pig in Lipstick". Personally, not a big deal, just "tryin'" to relate to the common man. Harvard grads are fatally flawed at being colloquial. But Hillary knows a great, natural politician when she sees one. She married one. Obama is no Bill Clinton.
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Palin and the "C" word...

....um, coattails?


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VIP VP

McCain's surprising pick of Sarah Palin says that WE, the Republicans, are not going to make this election about experience, (HRC was the one with the 3 AM phone call ad), but about ideas, issues and solutions. I think the Republicans are well positioned to counter the Democrats need to preach unity with there own to preach solutions. The DNC spent the week saying "yeah us!", while the RNC can spend the week saying "yeah U.S.!".
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Hip Hop Not Nation...

... at least for the time being. Expect to see less of artists like Ludacris, Jay-Z and others associated with Hip-Hop/Rap in the Main Stream Media in the coming weeks. Even though Obama is a fan. At least until after the election. Such warning flags as this one from boston.com are sent up to warn the "true believers" to "chill" for the short term. The vast majority of Americas do not want to become a "Hip-Hop Nation" as many feel murder rates are too high already, teen pregnancy is too common already and gang warfare is too prevalent already. The notion of a top down change in America to these ends does not appeal about 90% of citizens.

So expect to hear very little about how "hip" America is going to be with Obama as president. Note the very not hip-hop Jennifer Hudson will be singing the national anthem (the official United States national anthem that is not this one).
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Hmmmm, History Repeats Itself

Isn't this how Obama got he last job? The press delving into the divorce of an opponent?

An old post on the subject.
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Ex-President Obama

There is another angle to an Obama presidency on which I've seen no commentary. If he is elected president, in 4 or 8 years (if, then hopefully the former), he will be an ex-president, and at 51 or 55 years of age he could be an ex-president for a very long time. Democrat ex-presidents of late, of both the 4- and 8-year variety have a real problem fading into the sunset as was modeled by Reagan, Bush I and Ford. Bill, to the consternation of Hill, was unable to play it cool. I don't think he helped Gore or Kerry much as his false pout wore thin with the electorate. And Carter's failed policies somehow served as PhD. degrees qualifying him to comment, nay criticize ad nauseum. On the contrary John McCain would very likely be the kind of ex-president that Bush the First has been. Remember Bush I refused to go to Germany for a victory lap when the wall came down, because he felt others deserved that honor more than he. Apparently Obama had no problem running that lap as pre-president.

So remember, we are not just electing a president, we are also electing an ex-president. Who would make a better ex-president?
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Congress Passes Laws...

... and the Executive branch enforces them. Civics 101. Thomas Edsall makes this point at his Huffington Post article about how BHO is "moving to the center"...
"At the same time that the economy flourished during Rubin's and Summers' tenure (1995-2000) -- per capita income rose from $22,153 to $25,469 in inflation-adjusted dollars; median family income rose from $53,349 to $59,398; and unemployment fell from 5.6 to 4.0 percent -- both Treasury secretaries were accused of acceding to Wall Street pressure to eliminate deficit spending at the expense of the poor and unemployed."
Forgetting completely that Rubin/Summers/Clinton had virtually nothing to show for their tenure. The heavy lifting was done by the congress. But hey, if they want to take credit for that mild boom, how about taking credit for the massive dotcom crash that really created what everyone now knows as an artificial boom.

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No. You are too liberal!

BHO is using the race card saying the GOP is accusing him of being too black. The left wants to frame the election this way. They want to whine and guilt voters into voting for their guy. Typical. It will probably work because most people were "educated" in government schools. Including myself and I'm a complete idiot.
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I think I'll take the rest of the year off...

...and lay off my employees, until next year. Because if I make over $250,000 I'll have to pay 12.4% more in taxes. That's both shares of the payroll taxes, the responsibility of one who is self-employed. That is if BHO gets his way. That's a 38% tax increase for everyone making over 250K!!! What will they get for that? $1200 a month after age 67? Please! Anyone making that kind of money during their career won't qualify for social security anyway because they were probably smart and set up a KEOUGH, an IRA, a SEP-IRA, a Roth-IRA and other personal saving vehicles.

Bring families together again... get rid of social security! Then Grampa can't say "I don't need to be nice to my kids I've got social security"anymore.
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Anticipating Governmental Attacks

With much fear and loathing I opened my annual package from Blue Shield. Usually contains a thick booklet of policy changes and a new fee (read: new higher fee) structure. Well the policy changes were there, but something was missing. Like rechecking a winning lottery ticket over and over (something that I understand requires the purchase of a lottery ticket) I literally reread my statement three times before I dared to believe my sizable family premium had been cut by 10%!!! No I hadn't gotten younger (though Mrs. Contrarian Guitarist looks younger than ever), we hadn't lost a kid, nothing had changed just our premium. I wasn't the only one, millions of Californians experienced the same thing.

What happened? Had costs gone down? Probably not. What happened is twofold. Blue Shield is non-profit, meaning it can't, ultimately make a profit. It can build assets to a point to cover future costs. But at some point if it is paying out less than it is taking in then it's either going to have to give rebates, cut premiums or even give a premium holiday. The second possible reason for the cut is to inspire a fuzzier, warmer feeling towards insurers and the candidates they prefer come November. Those would be candidates that are opposed to a single payer nationalized health care system.

I planned on voting for them anyway. But the extra jingle in my pocket is cool too.

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Ishmael vs. Isaac

If John McCain chooses Joe Lieberman as his running mate, it would set up an historic contest between a descendant of Ishmael and a descendant of Isaac. Tracing it's roots from the book of Genesis to the conflict today concerning Israel and Jerusalem.

Joe could help deliver Connecticut's 7 electoral votes (Kerry could've had Ohio, and if Bush won CT he still would've won the presidency). And maybe help deliver some of the double voters in Florida and New York to the Republican ticket for a change.

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Expect this for the next five months...

... MSM stories on racism. Designed to guilt voters.

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Give us your SUV's, your BLT's and your AC's

From a speech in Oregon on May 17th, 2008 BHO said...

"We can't drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times ... and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK."

My liberal friends would say, "yeah, so?". First Barack spends a lot more time in SUV's than I do, eats much better food than I do, and I guarantee that he spends a lot more time in air conditioned rooms than I do. This reeks of classic elitism. The party members in the USSR had all comforts that the rest of the populace were not allowed to have. So if you disagree with President Obama you'll be walking, hungry and hot/cold. Second, what do other countries have to do with what I drive and eat and my thermostat setting? I know my liberal pals would say we live in a global village and we take too much, but the truth be told (and you won't hear this in your average university), we give far more than we get. We've given away for free our secret of success for one. Built hospitals, etc. Fed the world, given money. Far more than any other country. Given ours lives for the freedom of others and only asked for enough land to bury our dead. Other countries should be saying "thanks". Oh, and they are.

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