Posted by
Contrarian Guitarist on Monday, December 04, 2006 6:05:43 PM
If I held my family and friends to lost bets, I'd be getting a lot of free meals about now.
Back in August with gas prices at record highs (over $3.50 a gallon) I speculated often to those around me (sometimes if only to get a reaction) that gas prices would be closer to two bucks by Christmas than three. Bets were made. Dinner was my chip of choice. My sanity was questioned.
History was on my side. But even I was surprised at how quickly I was right. My step-brother-in-law who lives in
Charlotte has seen a nice drop in fuel costs. As low as $2.19 today. $1.70 in Oklahoma! Are there any good restaurants in Charlotte?
I'm no economist, I'm just a guitarist. But I pay attention. I saw it coming.
Increased oil reserves and production up. Unsold SUV's.
Emotional speculators at the reins.
People changing habits.
Lack of hurricanes. All added up to a reduction in the pump price.
Most people see the price go up and assume it's not going to come back down. But oil is a commodity. It's not a cut and color at a salon that's gone up $10 every year. Or college tuition. Or healthcare. Though those aren't always doomed follow upward trends. Columbia University might not continue to be able to get top dollar if parents find out what their kids are
studying.
Disclaimer: I bought Chevron stock as a hedge when gas started going up in 2003. (I'm up over 55%)